Category Archives: regular

Less Wrong transcribes Tyler Cowen’s Tedx talk on stories:

…we should be suspicious of stories. We’re biologically programmed to respond to them. They contain a lot of information. They have social power. They connect us to other people. So they’re like a kind of candy that we’re fed when we consume political information, when we read novels. When we read nonfiction books, we’re really being fed stories.

…So what are the problems of relying too heavily on stories? You view your life like “this” instead of the mess that it is or it ought to be.

…narratives tend to be too simple. The point of a narrative is to strip it way, not just into 18 minutes, but most narratives you could present in a sentence or two. So when you strip away detail, you tend to tell stories in terms of good vs. evil, whether it’s a story about your own life or a story about politics.

…As a simple rule of thumb, just imagine every time you’re telling a good vs. evil story, you’re basically lowering your IQ by ten points or more. If you just adopt that as a kind of inner mental habit, it’s, in my view, one way to get a lot smarter pretty quickly.

Best satire of 2011?
by Chris Blattman
I tweeted this a few days ago but it is too good not to post excerpts.

From Stuff Expat Aid Workers Like #122: Cover Letters from Unemployed Overachievers.

As you can see from my tiny-font, two page resume, I attended a top-level undergraduate university where I excelled at taking on more than I could possibly handle while maintaining a high GPA, completing 12 internships, and finding opportunities to travel to Western Europe

…My travels prompted me to do a semester abroad where I discovered a disdain for “tourists” who travel in packs taking pictures of 50 monuments in a single day instead of spending hours at cafes drinking wine and smoking like real Europeans.

…Upon graduation with highest honors, I took a year to backpack around the world to extremely poor countries where I spent most of my time drinking local beers and posing for pictures with street children. This experience led me to want to help alleviate poverty. I therefore obtained a volunteer position in which I dedicated a couple of years of my life to living in a mud hut.

…After this unique experience, I attended an ivy league graduate school where I obtained a Masters degree in appearing humble while actually making other people feel inadequate and uninformed.

From my peers I soon learned that there is a hierarchy to international work, and I became determined to not just help poor people, but to help the poorest and most desperate people, preferably those living in war-torn countries under military dictatorships where the chance of being kidnapped, blown up, or summarily executed is very high.

Only by working under the very worst of conditions can I prove to myself and my peers that I am in fact as ballsy as they are and just as willing to die for a project that is under-funded, poorly planned and probably has little chance of actually helping anyone.

God bless whoever wrote that. I think I want to hire them.

Students: How to email to your Professor, employer, and professional peers

A third of student emails make me cringe. Not from scorn (well, maybe a little scorn) but mainly sympathy. Distressing sympathy.

Here are 12 pieces of advice. I welcome others from readers. (Examples of terrible emails are welcome, so long as the sender is anonymous.)

1. Kick the email address from high school. It’s time for “” and “” to rest in peace.

2. Greet. Politely. Launching straight into the message is bad, but “Hi!” is poor form and “Hey Prof!” is an unmitigated disaster. “Dear” and “Hi” are fine, so long as you follow both by a name or title: “Hi Professor” or “Hi Mr. ____”.

3. On second thought, be careful with the Mr. and Ms. I could care less if strangers address me as Mr., Dr. or Prof. Blattman. Few of my colleagues seem to feel the same way. Sadly your approach must conform to the average (or even lowest common) ego. If you’re not sure if the person is a Dr. or not, three seconds on Google should tell you.

4. Capitalize and punctuate. otherwise we will lol at yr sad attempts

5. But not all punctuation. Of the exclamation point, Elmore Leonard said “You are allowed no more than two or three per 100,000 words of prose.” That’s roughly one exclamation point for every 500 messages you send. Use them wisely, for their overuse is the first sign of an immature mind. (Related, from Terry Pratchett: “Five exclamation marks, the sure sign of an insane mind.”)

6. Death to the emoticon. Keep them for your friends. And recall that, for centuries of the printed word, writers managed to convey sarcastic and funny without the semicolon and parenthesis. If you think your comment needs an emoticon, this is a sign you need to rewrite (or delete) the remark.

7. Avoid fancy typefaces or “stationery”. One word: cheeseball.

8. Be clear and concise. Write short messages, make clear requests, get to your point rapidly, and offer to provide more information rather than launch into your life story.

9. Don’t ask for information before you’ve looked on Google. “Can you send me paper X?” is annoying. But the best I’ve received: a request to explain the Cold War.

10. Don’t sound presumptuous. Many people are busy and important (and everybody thinks they are). If you are asking for anything requiring time or energy, it is courteous to be demure.

11. No quotes from famous people in your signature. See “cheeseball” above.

12. With your juniors, do the above as fastidiously as with your seniors. Allow me, momentarily, to break rule #11: ”Modesty is not only an ornament, but also a guard to virtue” – Joseph Addison

How Not to Write About African Elections
From superstar journalist Jina Moore, a crib sheet for covering African elections:
“These days, nowhere are crises more predictable than in __________ (poor/recently violent country). And yet, when they unfold as anticipated, Western policymakers and diplomats always seem caught off guard — raising questions about the competence, willingness, and commitment of the ________(captial city)-based diplomatic corps and the United Nations mission to discharge their responsibilities.” 
“….Nothing underscores the apathy and inconsistency that characterize Western diplomacy in _____ more than the current impasse…The legitimacy crisis threatens to trigger another round of civil war in a country that has already __________ (short-phrase recap of how many people died there in recent memory, thereby justifying interest).” 
“The ____________[major INGO] cited serious irregularities, including the loss of _____ (electoral documents) in _______ (city/town/village), a _____ stronghold….. Meanwhile, according to ________ (INGO) multiple locations in _______ (another city/town/village), a bastion of __________ (current ruler) supporters, reported impossibly high rates of 99 to [over] 100 percent voter turnout, with all or nearly all votes going to the incumbent.” (Note: Some wisely fix this slightly lower than 99 percent; adjust as needed.) 
“….As grievances and disputes over electoral law arose, the CENI [independent electoral commission] failed to provide an adequate forum for dialogue with the opposition.” (Sorry, players, that one goes verbatim in every election post-game.) 
“…..The independence of these commissioners has been called into question as _____ has regularly shown bias against ______” 
“…..These same international actors remained silent about the allegations of fraud and irregularities, even as _________ (local/national orgs) denounced violence and abuses. Their silence has helped spawned (sic) a crisis that could have easily been averted.” 
“…. ________ (incumbent) waited nearly ___________ days(/hours) to hold a news conference and react to… _____________ (oppostion’s) rejection of the results.
Fill in the blanks and prepare to meet your filing deadline.

Umberto Eco on Lists and Making Infinity Comprehensible

by Maria Popova
What Don Giovanni’s lovers have to do with the poetics of catalogues.

As a lover and maker of lists, this made my heart sing: In 2009, the great
Umberto Eco became a resident at the Louvre, where he chose to focus his
studies on “the vertigo of lists,” bringing his poetic observational style
to the phenomenon of cataloguing, culling, and collecting. He captured his
experience and insights in The Infinity of Lists: An Illustrated Essay,
where he charts the Western mind’s obsessive impulse for list-making across
music, literature and art, an impulse he calls a “giddiness of lists” but
demonstrates that, in the right hands, it can be a “poetics of catalogues.”

Der Spiegel interviewed Eco about his project at the Louvre, yielding the
following perl:

The list is the origin of culture. It’s part of the history of art and
literature. What does culture want? To make infinity comprehensible. It
also wants to create order — not always, but often. And how, as a human
being, does one face infinity? How does one attempt to grasp the
incomprehensible? Through lists, through catalogs, through collections in
museums and through encyclopedias and dictionaries. There is an allure to
enumerating how many women Don Giovanni slept with: It was 2,063, at least
according to Mozart’s librettist, Lorenzo da Ponte. We also have completely
practical lists — the shopping list, the will, the menu — that are also
cultural achievements in their own right.” &; Umberto Eco

The interview is fantastic in its entirety, as is The Infinity of Lists: An
Illustrated Essay.

Russia – really interesting

Russia The long life of Homo sovieticus This week’s elections and
upheavals in Russia show how hard it is, 20 years after the system
collapsed, for the country to put away its Soviet past

Dec 10th 2011 | *MOSCOW *| from the print edition

TWENTY years to the month since the Soviet Union fell apart, crowds of
angry young people have taken to the streets of Moscow, protesting against
the ruling United Russia Party (“the party of crooks and thieves”) and
chanting “Russia without Putin!” Hundreds have been detained, and the army
has been brought into the centre of Moscow “to provide security”. Although
the numbers are a far cry from the half-million who thronged the streets to
bury the USSR, these were the biggest protests in recent years. The
immediate trigger for this crisis was the rigging of the parliamentary
elections on December 4th (see
But the causes lie far deeper.

The ruling regime started to lose its legitimacy just as Vladimir Putin,
Russia’s prime minister, declared a final victory for “stability”, promised
to return to the Kremlin as president and pledged to rebuild a Eurasian
Union with former Soviet republics. The Soviet flavour of all this had been
underscored at United Russia’s party congress at the end of November, where
Mr Putin was nominated for the presidency. “We need a strong, brave and
able leader …And we have such a man: it is Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin,”
enthused a film director. A steelworker told the congress how Mr Putin had
“lifted our factory from its knees” and supported it “with his wise
advice”. A single mother with 19 children thanked Mr Putin for a “bright
*Related topics*

– The Kremlin
– Communism
– Russia
– European politics

Such parallels with the now idealised late Soviet era were supposed to be
one of Mr Putin’s selling points. No tiresome political debate, fairly
broad personal freedoms, shops full of food: wasn’t that what people
wanted? Instead, unthinkably, Mr Putin has been booed: first by an audience
at a martial-arts event on November 20th, then at many polling stations,
and now on the streets. The Soviet rhetoric conjured an anti-Soviet

According to Lev Gudkov of the Levada Centre, an independent
polling-research organisation, this reaction against the monopolistic,
corrupt and authoritarian regime is itself part of a Soviet legacy. It is
driven by the lack of alternatives rather than a common vision for change.
For Russia is still a hybrid state. It is smaller, more consumerist and
less collective than the Soviet Union. But while the ideology has gone, the
mechanism for sustaining political power remains. Key institutions,
including courts, police and security services, television and education,
are used by bureaucrats to maintain their own power and wealth. The
presidential administration, an unelected body, still occupies the building
(and place) of the Central Committee of the Communist Party.

More important, the Soviet mental software has proved much more durable
than the ideology itself. When, in 1989, a group of sociologists led by
Yuri Levada began to study what they called Soviet Man, an artificial
construct of doublethink, paternalism, suspicion and isolationism, they
thought he was vanishing. Over the next 20 years they realised that Homo
sovieticus had mutated and reproduced, acquiring, along the way, new
characteristics such as cynicism and aggression. This is not some genetic
legacy, but the result of institutional restrictions and the skewed
economic and moral stimuli propagated by the Kremlin.

This mental software was not a generational feature, as the Levada group at
first suspected. The elections were rigged in Moscow not only by
middle-aged people with Soviet memories, but by thousands of pro-Kremlin
younger folk gathered from across the country and dispatched to cast
multiple ballots around the city. Symbolically, they made their camp in an
empty pavilion of the Stalinist Exhibition of People’s Achievements. Most
of them had no memories of the Soviet Union; they were born after it had
ceased to exist.

Yet the election results also revealed the reluctance of a large part of
Russian society to carry on with the present system. Thousands of indignant
men and women, young and old, tried to stop the fraud and protect their
rights. One election monitor, who was thrown out of the polling station,
wrote in his blog that “I thought I would die of shame…I did not manage to
save your votes…forgive me.” Such voices may still be a minority, but the
clash between these two groups was essentially a clash of civilisations—and
a sign that the process of dismantling the Soviet system, which started 20
years ago, is far from over.

*A moral vacuum*

When the Communist regime collapsed in 1991 there was an expectation, both
in the West and in Russia, that the country would embrace Western values
and join the civilised world. It took no account of a ruined economy,
depleted and exhausted human capital and the mental and moral dent made by
70 years of Soviet rule. Nobody knew what kind of country would succeed the
Soviet Union, or what being Russian really meant. The removal of
ideological and geographical constraints did not add moral clarity.

In particular, the intelligentsia—the engine of Soviet collapse—was caught
unprepared. When their “hopeless cause” became reality, it quickly
transpired that the country lacked a responsible elite able and willing to
create new institutions. The Soviet past and its institutions were never
properly examined; instead, everything Soviet became a subject of ridicule.
The very word “Soviet” was shortened to *sovok*, which in Russian means
“dustpan”. In fact, says Mr Gudkov of Levada, this self-mockery was not a
reasoned rejection of the Soviet system; it was playful and flippant.
Sidelined by years of state paternalism and excluded from politics, most
people did not want to take responsibility for the country’s affairs.

The flippancy ended when the government abolished price regulation,
revealing the worthlessness of Soviet savings, and Boris Yeltsin, faced
with an armed rebellion, fired on the Soviet parliament in 1993. Soon the
hope of a miracle was replaced by disillusion and nostalgia. As Mr Levada’s
polling showed, it did not mean that most people wished to return to the
Soviet past. But they longed for order and stability, which they associated
with the army and security services rather than with politicians.

*Enter the hero*

Mr Putin—young, sober, blue-eyed and calm—was a perfect match for people’s
expectations. Although picked by Yeltsin, he made a striking contrast with
the ailing leader. Though he owed his career to the 1990s, he stressed that
his own times were very different. Two factors made him popular: a growing
economy, which allowed him to pay off salary and pension arrears, and the
prosecution of a war in Chechnya. Both symbolised the return of the state.

In the absence of any new vision or identity, the contrast with the 1990s
could only be achieved by appealing to a period that preceded it—the late
Soviet Union. Yet although Mr Putin exploited the nostalgia for an
idealised Soviet past and restored the Soviet anthem, he had no intention
of rebuilding the Soviet Union either economically or geographically. As he
said repeatedly, “One who does not regret the passing of the Soviet Union
has no heart; one who wants to bring it back has no brain.”

As a KGB man, Mr Putin knew perfectly well that the state-controlled Soviet
economy did not work and that the ideology was hollow. But also as a KGB
man, he believed that democracy and civil society were simply an
ideological cover-up adopted by the West. What mattered in the world—East
or West—were money and power, and these were the things he set out to

The country was tired of ideology, and he did not force it. All he promised
(and largely delivered) was to raise incomes; to restore Soviet-era
stability and a sense of worth; to provide more consumer goods; and to let
people travel. Since these things satisfied most of the demands for
“Freedom” that had been heard from the late 1980s onwards, the people
happily agreed to his request that they should stay out of politics. Though
Mr Putin was an authoritarian, he seemed “democratic” to them.

The ease with which Mr Putin eliminated all alternative sources of power
was a testimony not to his strength but to Russia’s institutional weakness.
Yeltsin, who hated communism, had refused to censor the media or interfere
in the court system. Mr Putin had no such qualms. First he brought
television under his control, then oil and gas. Igor Malashenko, who helped
to establish NTV, the first private television channel in Russia, says he
thought that “there would be enough young journalists who would not want to
go back to the stables. I was wrong.”

Russia was much freer in the 1990s than it became under Mr Putin. But the
change was gradual rather than sudden, and was based on a relationship
between money and power inherited from a previous era. The privatisations
of the 1990s put property in the hands of the Soviet officialdom and a
small group of Russian oligarchs. As Kirill Rogov, a historian and analyst,
has observed, the real problem was not that the accumulation of capital was
unfair—it usually is—but that clear rules of competition and a mechanism
for transferring property from less to more efficient owners were never

Under Yeltsin, the oligarchs were shielded from competition by their
political clout. Mr Putin simply flipped the formula, turning owners into
vassals who were allowed to keep their property at his discretion. From now
on it was the power of the bureaucrat, not the wealth of the owner, that
guaranteed the ownership of an asset. The nexus between political power and
property was never broken—as it must be in a functioning democracy.

*Monetising privilege*

Under communism, the lack of private property was compensated for by power
and status. A party boss did not own a factory personally—he could not even
buy a flat—but his position in the party gave him access to the collective
property of the state, including elite housing and special food parcels.
The word “special” was a favourite one in the Soviet system, as in “special
meeting”, “special departments” and “special regime”.

The Soviet system collapsed when top officials decided to “monetise” their
privileges and turn them into property. The word “special” was also
commercialised, to become*eksklusivny* (exclusive) and *elitny* (elite). It
was used to market almost anything, from a house to a haircut. Under Mr
Putin, “special” regained its Soviet meaning without losing its commercial
value. A black Mercedes with a blue flashing light, ploughing its way
through pedestrians, became the ultimate manifestation of power and money.
It was also one of the symbols of injustice which helped to trigger the
latest protests.

Stories of bureaucrats, and especially the security services, putting
pressure on businesses are now common. The most famous example is that of
Mikhail Khodorkovsky and the dismembering of the Yukos oil company. But
there are thousands of others. The statistics are staggering: one in six
businessmen in Russia has been prosecuted for an alleged economic crime
over the past decade. Most of the cases have no plaintiff and the number of
acquittals is close to zero, according to studies by Russia’s Centre of
Legal and Economic Research. This means that the vast number of Russian
businessmen in jail are victims of corrupt prosecutors, police and courts,
which can expropriate a business with impunity.

As Yegor Gaidar, a prominent liberal economist, warned in 1994, “The
carcass of a bureaucratic system can become the carcass of a mafia system,
depending on its goals.” By the time his book appeared in 2009 his warning
had become reality. In the past few years this “monstrous hybrid” has
started to extend its tentacles into every sphere of public life where
money can be made. Examples of violence against businessmen abound. This
adds up to a Soviet-style policy of negative selection, where the best and
most active are suppressed or eliminated while parasitic bureaucrats and
law enforcers are rewarded. What Stalin wrought by repression and
extermination, today’s Russia achieves by corruption and state violence.

The bureaucracy’s main resource is participation in the rent-distribution
chain. While this allows it to channel money towards sensitive regions and
factories, it also increases the country’s addiction to oil and gas and
fans paternalism. Mr Putin has worked hard to build up the image of the
state as the sole benefactor, taking credit for rising incomes generated by
high oil prices. As he stressed at the United Russia congress, only the
state and its ruling party are capable of sorting out people’s problems.
“No one else is responsible for affairs in a village, town, city or region
or the whole country. There is no such force.”

This idea was spread by local governors, who told their citizens before the
elections that regional funding depended on voting for United Russia. “If
we are responsible, we have no choice,” the governor of impoverished
Udmurtia told his people. “We must go and vote for the [United Russia]
party candidates 99.99%. This is how it was in Soviet times, and if we had
not broken this order, we would still be living in the Soviet Union…much
better than now.” In practice, critics say, the state has failed to perform
many of its functions, such as providing adequate health care, education,
security and justice. But in Russia words and symbols often count for more
than experience.

*A fortress mentality*

Among Mr Putin’s rediscovered Soviet symbols, none is more important than
that of Russia as a great power surrounded by enemies. Having promoted a
version of history in which Stalin represents Russia’s greatness (his
repressions just an unfortunate side-effect of a cold war forced upon him
by America), Mr Putin has employed one of Stalinism’s favourite formulas:
Russia as an isolated and besieged fortress.

Although Russia has no iron curtain and the internet is free, “it is as
though an invisible wall still counterpoises everything that is ‘ours’ to
everything ‘foreign’,” Mr Levada has written. Indeed his polling showed
that, by 2004, the number of Russians who considered themselves no
different from people in other countries had fallen, while the opinion that
Russia is surrounded by enemies had grown stronger.

The recent parliamentary elections were accompanied by a heavy-handed
propaganda campaign that portrayed America’s anti-missile system as an
existential threat to Russia. Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s president, made
belligerent statements and state television showed lengthy footage of
Russian missiles, radars and other threatening stuff, accompanied by a
tense soundtrack. It was as though Russia was about to be attacked. The
target of this campaign was not the West, where the Russian elite spends
much of its time and money, but the domestic audience.

Anyone who criticises the government from within Russia gives aid to the
enemy without. In his speech to the party congress Mr Putin particularly
attacked NGOs which receive money from the West “to influence the course of
the election campaign in our country”. The “so-called grant receivers” were
like Judas, he said, ending his speech with a quote from Stalinist times:
“Truth is on our side. Victory will be ours!” He conspicuously left out the
third bit: “The enemy will be destroyed!” But no sooner had he spoken than
Russia’s slavish television (which has shown none of the current protests)
aired a propagandist film about Golos, a leading independent election
monitor, trying to frame its staff as Western agents.

Such tactics, in which enemies are everywhere and no one is allowed a noble
motive, breed a general cynicism. In this, post-Soviet Russia feels very
different from the Soviet Union. Leaders then had values, not just
interests. The Communist Party might have been sclerotic and repressive,
but it was not called “a party of thieves and crooks”. Soviet leaders did
not encourage cynicism: they took themselves and their words seriously. It
would have been impossible, for example, for a chief Soviet ideologist to
write an anonymous novel exposing the vices of the system he himself had
created, as Vladislav Surkov, the chief Kremlin strategist, has just done.

Many Kremlin politicians in fact perceive themselves as progressive
Westernisers struggling with a backward, inert population which has neither
the taste nor the skill for democracy. They assume people will swallow
anything as long as their incomes keep rising. But when Mr Putin said that
his job swap with Mr Medvedev had been planned long ago, people felt duped.
These blatant machinations, where everything was imitation and nothing was
real, leached away support for United Russia even before the elections.
When the Kremlin decided to rig the ballot openly, fury boiled over.

After a decade of “stability”, Russia now looks as vulnerable to shock as
the Soviet Union was at the end of its days. The big difference, however,
is that the Soviet Union had a clear structure and, in Mikhail Gorbachev, a
leader who was not prepared to defend himself with force. Today’s
circumstances are very different.

Mr Putin is unlikely to follow the advice of Mr Gorbachev and cancel the
results of the rigged election. He may instead resort to more active
repression, thereby making the country look a lot more Soviet. This would
only make the crisis worse. How Mr Putin’s highly personalised power might
be challenged, and what the consequences would be, remain unanswerable
questions. But it is obvious that unless Russians create a system that
promotes honesty, openness, tolerance and initiative, no change of leader
will free their country from the Soviet grip.


Contemplation and service

“No man has a right to lead such a life of contemplation as to forget in his own ease the service due his neighbor; nor has any man a right to be so immersed in active life as to neglect the contemplation of God” – Augustine

And we should ask ourselves, in the words of Karl Barth, “are you willing now to deal with humanity as it is? Humanity in this [twenty-first] century with all its passions, sufferings, errors, and so on? Do you like them, these people? Not only the good Christians, but do you like people as they are? People in their weakness? Do you like them, do you love them?”

The struggle against self-loathing

“Here lies the core of my spiritual struggle: the struggle against self-rejection, self-contempt, and self-loathing. It is a very fierce battle because the world and it’s demons conspire to make me think about myself as worthless, useless, and negligible. Many consumerist economies stay afloat by manipulating the low self-esteem of their consumers and by creating spiritual expectations through material means. As long as I am kept “small,” I can easily be seduced to buy things, meet people, or go places that promise a radical change in self-concept even though they are totally incapable of bringing this about. But every time I allow myself to be manipulated or seduced, I will have still more reasons for putting myself down and seeing myself as the unwanted child”

– Henri Nouwen, The Return of the Prodigal Son (p107)

What do colorblind people see?

Need to prove something you already believe? Statistics are easy: All you need are two graphs and a leading question

The illustrated guide to a Ph.D.

Matthias Rath – steal this chapter
April 9th, 2009 by Ben Goldacre in africa, alternative medicine, bad science, BANT, book, death, matthias rath, nutritionists | 125 Comments »
This is the “missing chapter” about vitamin pill salesman Matthias Rath. Sadly I was unable to write about him at the time that book was initially published, as he was suing my ass in the High Court. The chapter is now available in the new paperback edition, and I’ve posted it here for free so that nobody loses out.
Although the publishers make a slightly melodramatic fuss about this in the promo material, it is a very serious story about the dangers of pseudoscience, as I hope you’ll see, and it was also a pretty unpleasant episode, not just for me, but also for the many other people he’s tried to sue, including Medecins Sans Frontieres and more. If you’re ever looking for a warning sign that you’re on the wrong side of an argument, suing Medecins Sans Frontieres is probably a pretty good clue.
Anyway, here it is, please steal it, print it, repost it, whatever, it’s free under a Creative Commons license, details at the end. If you prefer it is available as a PDF here, or as a word document here. Happy Easter!

Tin-Tin goes to Congo

Congo’s election

That sinking feeling

A general election in the Democratic Republic of Congo may end in tears

Nov 26th 2011 | KINSHASA | from the print edition

·         HE windows of the crumbling, colonial-era house that serves as head office for the Union for Democracy and Social Progress (UDPS), Congo’s main opposition party, are mostly broken from stones and petrol bombs thrown by supporters of President Joseph Kabila in a series of tit-for-tat attacks in September. Inside, rooms are dark and empty except for a few broken chairs and makeshift desks. Political power seems a long way off.

On November 28th Congo will hold its second democratic election since the end in 2002 of a bloody war that left several million dead. The UDPS will field the leading opposition candidate for the presidency, Etienne Tshisekedi. He is trying to convince voters that at 78 he has enough life in him to rule this most unruly of African countries. In the 1980s and 1990s, he was tortured and imprisoned for years as head of the opposition against Mobutu Sese Seko, the kleptocrat who ran Congo from 1965 to 1997.

Life and politics have improved since then, but not nearly as much as it was hoped. Mr Tshisekedi spent the first two weeks of the official 30-day election campaign in South Africa trying to find the millions of dollars needed to promote his wares in a country that is almost the size of western Europe and has a population exceeding 70m. This month the UN named Congo as the least developed country in the world. Only 9% of its people have even intermittent access to electricity. GDP per person was 50% higher at independence in 1960 than it is today.

In the past five years, Congo has seen its mineral sector rebound, thanks to rising global prices, particularly for copper. The government has brokered a $6 billion deal with China to trade minerals for infrastructure. The IMF and World Bank forgave Congo about $12 billion in debt last year after the government agreed to economic reforms. But investors are still reluctant. The sale of mining licences at below-market value to firms associated with friends of the president has raised eyebrows.

Congo remains plagued by corruption and by militias from the civil-war era. Mr Kabila has improved security, especially since making peace in 2009 with his long-time enemy, Rwanda. But violence is still a way of life in parts of the country. The predatory army is far from reformed. Corruption is rife at all levels of the state, from the top of the security forces to local tax collectors. “There has been no growth in employment” in small and medium-sized businesses between 2006 and 2010 because of corruption, says the World Bank.

Mr Tshisekedi claims he will change all that. He has called Mr Kabila’s followers terrorists and told his own supporters to storm the country’s prisons to free political detainees. Such talk has turned off Western diplomats and international observers. But they view the president, who seems to have access to unlimited campaign funds, with little more enthusiasm.

Violence, intimidation, arbitrary arrests and deaths during campaigning have been blamed on thugs loyal to him. Some opposition radio stations have been shut down and opposition gatherings banned in parts of the country. Mr Kabila may struggle to repeat his victory of 2006. Eastern Congo, where he won more than 90% of the vote, still suffers from conflict. Mr Tshisekedi will easily win the capital, Kinshasa, and his home region, the two Kasais. That should leave almost half the far-flung country up for grabs.

Whatever the result, doubts about the election’s fairness will persist, not least because of a perception that the electoral commission’s head is a friend of the president. Logistical problems are also ubiquitous, despite an election budget of $500m or so. As well as 11 presidential candidates, 18,000 hopefuls, including several pop stars and a rebel leader accused of ordering the rape of more than 300 women in eastern Congo last year, are contesting 500 seats in parliament. Some of the ballots will exceed 50 pages, which will surely daunt even the minority of voters who can read.

Many may fail even to get to see a ballot paper. A little rain before election day in Congo’s vast, forested interior could make it impossible to distribute ballots; an almost complete lack of roads means that most voting material must be delivered by helicopters that cannot land if it is too muddy. There is talk of a delay. Few Western diplomats think a decent election can be held on time.

Mr Tshisekedi says Mr Kabila intends to steal the vote, foreshadowing a situation where both men could declare victory. A disputed result would go to Congo’s wobbly courts. A grim hope remains that the president might win by a large enough margin to avoid plausible challenges. But the vote could provoke a bloodbath. Jean Claude Katende, head of Congo’s African Association for the Defence of Human Rights, says, “No matter who wins, there will be violence.”

What makes this poll different from the 2006 one, which was accompanied by vicious fighting, is the limited role of do-gooding outsiders. Five years ago the UN ran the election and made it credible. But in 2009, when Mr Kabila made peace with his arch-foe Rwanda, the UN lost its pre-eminent role. Its 17,000 soldiers still support Congo’s government with logistics and oversee its nascent army. It also funds one of Africa’s most admirably independent radio services, Radio Okapi. But it no longer has the will or the power to save Congo from itself.

from the print edition | Middle East and Africa

The Neofeudal Degeneration
from Umair HaqueEudaimonicsRedesigning Global Prosperity. by umair

Welcome to the crisis that never ends. Here’s what I’ve suggested on Twitter. Our economic problems are really political problems. But our political problems are really cultural problems.

To begin explaining what I mean by that, consider the following. If, as I’ve argued following the above, we’re on a trajectory that’s collapsing towards “neofeudalism”, what does it look and feel like?

I’d say it has five key characteristics:

Neoserfdom. Here’s the first aspect of neoserfdom. In a neofeudal order, serfs pay tribute to be protected from harm. In a social contract, people invest collectively in public goods that offer real benefits. They’re mirror images. We’re arcing towards the former: tribute is paid to be protected from harm by institutions with the credibility and power to inflict it, whether banks, corporations, or governments. The simplest example of tribute is the shifting of bailout costs onto the public balance sheet—as are the monopoly rents that corporations earn by virtue of their size, privilege, and structure. The second aspect of neoserfdom, of course, is insecurity: not having a personal balance sheet, but being perpetually and asymetrically indebted to (literally, in soft and hard debt to) those with assets—not by virtue of an economic exchange, but purely by accident of birth, class, or social position. 
Output fetishism. The point of neoserfdom, of course, is to maximize output. The axis around which a feudal economy spun was surplus (grain, gold, etc)—channeled upwards, gathered at the very top, often literally to a single family. In a neofeudal order, that simple surplus fetishism is replaced by output fetishism—you’re in hock so you can produce (and acquire) industrial output. Think Black Friday, forever.
Kleptarchy. In a neofeudal order, governance as we know it isn’t. A combination of kleptocracy (“rule of thieves”), where elites loot states, and oligarchy, where the looting of states sustains elites, replaces democracy (or even American quasi-democracy). The point of neoserfdom isn’t merely to entrench the gains of kleptocrats, who subvert the institutions of the common good not merely for personal gain, but to structurally alter the fabric of wealth, income, opportunity, and capability, eviscerating the concept of society.
Patronage. In a neofeudal polity, patronage replaces meritocracy (etc). “Success” for an organization, coalition, or person is to become a client of a powerful patron, pledging your services (soft and hard, informal and formal), in perpetual alignment with the patron’s interests. This is the story of Congress, for example, pledging allegiance to banks, showering them with bailouts and guarantees, not merely unable to—but incapable of—reforming them.
Cronyism. There are no markets in a neofeudal order—there are tiny, closed, exclusive networks of patrons, directing the flow of a once-society’s set of resources. As such, “competition” doesn’t really exist; just the marketing of competition; and all the attendant flaws of a lack of competition are produced (stagnation, unnovation, monopoly) The reverse is also true: instead of institutionalized redistribution (think basic safety nets), transfers in a neofeudal order depend on the whims of the kleptarchs. Bill Gates made billions as a textbook monopolist, eviscerating an entire industry for decades—and now, he’s showering that money on “good causes”. Sound familiar? It should, it’s the role the church often plays in a classic feudal order. Yet, if we had a working order, the cycle above would have been broken from the beginning—no monopoly, more efficient distribution, legitimized social choice directing it (instead of Bill Gates’ preferences).
I’ll discuss later what the evolution of a neofedual order might look like in human terms (though I’m sure you can guess it boils down to something like “pretty gross”). For now, chew on the above, and let me if you’d add or subtract stuff.

‘Non-slanderous evaluation is fair-minded, constructive, gentle, guarded, and always demonstrates that speakers sense how much they share the same frailty, humanity, and sinful nature with the one being criticized. It shows a profound awareness of your own sin. It is never “against-speaking.”

It’s from: Should You Pass on Bad Reports? -Tim Keller & David Powlison

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“The secret of success is making your vocation your vacation.” ~ Mark Twain

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“Writing comes from reading, and reading is the finest teacher of how to write.” – Annie Proulx (via theparisreview)

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“The Russian polymath Mikhail Bakhtin, one of the titanic minds of the twentieth century, though too neglected now, believed that in a dialogue the position of primacy is with the person who listens rather than the one who first speaks. After all, he said, we do not speak unless we anticipate a response; and we shape what we say in light of possible reactions. If the listener, even if only an imagined listener or our own image of our Self, were not there, we might not speak at all, and if we did we would speak very differently than in fact we do.”

Question everything.